With less than a week to go until the Senedd elections, More in Common’s latest projection finds a tightening race – Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are tied on Senedd seat estimates, while Labour’s vote share is being squeezed in all directions. The MRP model finds that even with Labour and Plaid Cymru in coalition, they could still be just short of a majority.

As the race enters its final days, More in Common’s latest Holyrood projection finds the SNP gaining ground – but still falling short of a majority. Meanwhile, Labour falls back further, facing a potentially historic defeat. With nearly a fifth of Scottish voters still undecided and five marginal seats separating the SNP from a majority, the result remains highly uncertain.

More in Common’s first Senedd MRP model suggests that the 2026 Senedd election will reshape Welsh politics.