More in Common’s new MRP projects Reform UK would be in touching distance of a majority if the General Election were today. Based on polling of over 10,000 Britons, the model estimates that,  Reform UK would be the largest party with  290 MPs – more than twice as many as any other party.

Following the government’s decision to cut the UK’s foreign aid budget, More in Common has been conducting polling and focus group research to understand what voters want to prioritise from the remaining aid budget. Using nationally representative polling and focus groups in Wolverhampton, Bristol and Ilford, several key insights emerge.

Our new MRP suggests a dramatic transformation of the political landscape since last July. Based on polling of over 16,000 people, the model estimates that, were an election held today, Reform UK would win 180 seats – the largest of any party, with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 165 seats each. No party would come close to an overall majority, reflecting a historically fragmented electorate.