More in Common’s new MRP projects Reform UK would be in touching distance of a majority if the General Election were today. Based on polling of over 10,000 Britons, the model estimates that,  Reform UK would be the largest party with  290 MPs – more than twice as many as any other party.

Our new MRP suggests a dramatic transformation of the political landscape since last July. Based on polling of over 16,000 people, the model estimates that, were an election held today, Reform UK would win 180 seats – the largest of any party, with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 165 seats each. No party would come close to an overall majority, reflecting a historically fragmented electorate.

More in Common have released their first MRP of the new Parliament which reveals a dramatic shift in Britain’s electoral dynamics. The model estimates that an election today would produce a highly fragmented and unstable Parliament with 5 parties holding over 30 seats. While Labour would still emerge on top, they would have barely a third of the total number of seats, and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives, while Reform UK emerges as the third largest party on 72 seats.