Our new MRP suggests a dramatic transformation of the political landscape since last July. Based on polling of over 16,000 people, the model estimates that, were an election held today, Reform UK would win 180 seats – the largest of any party, with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 165 seats each. No party would come close to an overall majority, reflecting a historically fragmented electorate.

More in Common have released their first MRP of the new Parliament which reveals a dramatic shift in Britain’s electoral dynamics. The model estimates that an election today would produce a highly fragmented and unstable Parliament with 5 parties holding over 30 seats. While Labour would still emerge on top, they would have barely a third of the total number of seats, and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives, while Reform UK emerges as the third largest party on 72 seats.

More in Common and The News Agents have released their third and final MRP of the General Election campaign which projects Labour will win 430 seats in Thursday’s election – a majority of 210, while the Conservatives are expected to hold just 126 seats, their lowest ever result.

More in Common’s MRP model released today predicts Labour will win 406 seats in the General Election on 4 July – a majority of 162, while the Conservatives are expected to hold just 155 seats.

What has changed?