Our first Scottish MRP projects that the SNP will remain the largest party in Holyrood – but squeezed on all sides and short of a majority. Meanwhile Reform UK is on track to break through North of the border for the first time.

Our latest MRP projects that, if a General Election were held today, Reform UK could be the largest party, just one seat short of a majority. Meanwhile the Green Party could break through, quadrupling their parliamentary presence from 5 to 22 seats and posing a threat to Labour in many of their urban strongholds.

More in Common’s new MRP projects a Reform UK majority if a General Election were held today. Based on polling of more than 16,000 Britons, the model estimates that Reform would take 381 seats – with Labour and the Conservatives fighting for second place.

Following the Home Secretary’s announcements on asylum reform, our polling shows widespread concern about a lack of control over the UK’s borders, and indicates that many government policies are broadly in line with public opinion. While Britons want stricter control of the asylum system, few support the idea of ‘pulling up the drawbridge’ entirely. There remains cross-political support for capped, controlled routes for people fleeing war or persecution.

More in Common’s new MRP projects a Reform UK majority if a General Election were held today. Based on polling of nearly 20,000 Britons, the model estimates that Reform would take 373 seats with Labour reduced to double digits.