Key findings:

• Reform’s retreat continues: Reform UK are projected to win 293 seats, 31 fewer than in More in Common’s April model and 88 fewer than in January. They would be 33 short of a majority.
• A Conservative uptick? The Conservatives are projected to win 96 seats, their third consecutive increase (70 in January, 81 in April). They also lead the second-place table, running second in 209 seats and in 161 of Reform’s 293.
• Labour is wiped out in Wales: For the first time in any More in Common model, Labour would win no seats at all in Wales, down from 27 in 2024 and four in April. The model is Plaid Cymru’s best projected result to date, building on momentum from their success at the Senedd election.
• The Green surge recedes. After being projected to quadruple their seats to 22 in April, the Greens have fallen back to 10 – losing nine potential gains directly to Labour, and losing two of the four seats they won in 2024.
• Labour edges up but is hollowed out. Labour recovers to 110 seats, an improvement of nine seats since April, but that is still a loss of 301 MPs from their 2024 landslide. Almost half of what remains – 48 seats – is in London.

Reform UK retreat

Reform UK are projected to win 293 seats – still more than 180 clear of their nearest rival, but 33 short of the 326 needed for a majority.

This is the second consecutive fall in More in Common’s modelling. Since April, Reform have lost 53 projected seats and gained 22. In recent months, Reform has lost ground to parties across politics – with the Conservatives mostly clawing back seats, while Reform lose their grip in the Home Counties.

• 31 seats lost to the Conservatives, concentrated in the Home Counties, the shires and North East Scotland – the same clawback we identified in April, now accelerating.
• 9 seats lost to the SNP across the Central Belt and Fife, where Reform’s spring advance has almost entirely unwound.
• 9 seats lost to Labour, mostly in urban England.
• 4 seats lost to Plaid Cymru in the Welsh valleys.

Despite losing ground since their peak in January 2026, this result would be a historic victory for Reform UK – they would lead their closest rival (Labour)  by 183 seats, and win seats in every region of Great Britain. Additionally, they remain within touching distance of a majority; only 33 MPs (roughly a third of the Conservatives’ parliamentary force in this scenario) would need to work with Reform in order to form a coalition.

The Conservatives tick up

The Conservatives are projected to win 96 seats. This marks their third consecutive improvement in More in Common’s MRP projections: an increase of 15 since More in Common’s April MRP,  and up 26 since  January. 

They remain 25 below their 2024 result, but their recovery is now a trend rather than a blip:

Most of their recovery is in the South East (where they now hold 41 seats), the East Midlands and North East Scotland, where they are winning seats that previously may have swung to Reform UK.

Britain’s top second choice: perhaps the most hopeful sign for the Conservative Party is how many seats they nearly win. The Conservatives are in second place in 209 seats – more than any other party – including 161 of Reform’s 293 seats. 

• Reform are second place in 191, while Labour are second place in 160.

Kemi Badenoch would now hold North West Essex, reversing the April projection, though on a margin of just over one point.

The recovery is not uniform. The Conservatives lose eight seats to the Liberal Democrats since April, and their position in their former heartlands of Essex and Lincolnshire remains weak. 

Burnham inherits a hollowed out Labour Party

An election held on the eve of Burnham’s premiership could see Labour win just 110 seats – a loss of 301 MPs since July 2024.

This reflects a small increase of nine seats since April 2026, but a momentous drop since the General Election. The party would lose seats to parties across politics:

• 216 to Reform UK
• 35 to the Conservatives
• 31 to the SNP
• 8 to the Greens
• 6 to Plaid Cymru
• 5 to Independents and others

Labour reduced to its urban core. Nearly half – 48 – of Labour’s 110 seats are in London. A further 23 are in the North West and 12 in Yorkshire and the Humber. Labour hold one seat in the South West, none in Wales, and five in Scotland.

Labour could face complete wipeout in Wales.

Following the party’s historic loss in the Senedd in May 2026, More in Common’s MRP has projected that Labour would not win a single Welsh seat in a General Election. This is the first time that the model has projected zero Labour wins in Wales. 

The party finds itself squeezed between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, losing seats in Cardiff to Plaid Cymru, and post-industrial heartlands in South and North-West Wales to Reform UK. Across Wales, the average seat is now a Plaid-Reform swing seat, won on razor-thin margins while Labour are squeezed out.

Polanski’s Greens fall back

The Greens are projected to win 10 seats, a fall of 12 since More in Common’s April MRP.

April’s projection of 22 seats represented a Green surge into Labour’s urban strongholds. That surge has receded: on 10 per cent of the vote (down from 12), the Greens lose nine of those seats straight back to Labour.

The Greens retain their urban strongholds, but lose their rural gains. They win emphatically in Brighton Pavilion (55 per cent of the vote) and Bristol Central (56 per cent) – the two safest non-Reform seats in the model. They also take Bristol East, Bristol North East, Bristol South, Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven, Huddersfield, Leeds Central and Headingley, Norwich South and Sheffield Central.

But the model has them losing both of their rural gains from 2024 – Waveney Valley (to Reform, by one point) and North Herefordshire (to the Conservatives, by 0.4 points). Green vote share in both falls by more than 12 points since 2024.

The Greens remain a live threat to Labour. They are in second place in 35 seats, 33 of them Labour-held, including Manchester Rusholme (0.8 points), Bristol North West (2.6), Hove and Portslade (3.6) and Cambridge (4.6). Their vote is also still highly inefficient: 10 per cent of the national vote translates into 10 seats.

Methodology

Sample size: 14,358

Fieldwork dates: 5 – 28 June 2026

Note: the model does not factor in recent by-election results (although English local elections and Scottish and Welsh Parliament results are included). This is why some seats – such as Makerfield, projectedto be won by Reform, or Aberdeen South, shown as SNP – may differ from recent by-election results.

Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common, said:

While we should expect to see a Burnham bounce, calls for an early general election might underestimate just how far Labour has  fallen. Burnham inherits a party whose support has been hollowed out to its urban core: an election tomorrow would see Labour lose almost three-quarters of their 2024 landslide and, for the first time in our modelling, every single one of their Welsh seats.

Meanwhile the Battle for the Right wages on. However, there maybe signs that Reform is slipping back. The Conservatives remain at a historic low, still short even of their 2024 defeat, but for the third model in a row they have gained ground: clawing back seats in the South East, the East Midlands and North East Scotland, and now in second place in more seats than any other party.

That said, our model suggests that an election tomorrow would still make Reform comfortably the largest party, but their path to a majority is narrowing as they lose ground to other parties left and right.