A year after the 2024 General Election, new research from More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab finds a country still waiting for change, but increasingly unsure whether the new government will deliver it. Many Britons feel disappointed by Labour’s first year, and question whether there has been a meaningful improvement on many of the big issues facing the country. But the public has not given up hope: most still want Labour to succeed, and a renewed focus on showing respect for ordinary people, tackling everyday frustrations, and delivering visible progress on the NHS and cost of living could help rebuild trust.

What’s changed?

The 2024 General Election was a change election. Given the choice between the Conservative and Labour campaign slogans, three quarters (74 per cent) said they aligned with “It’s time for change”, compared to only a quarter who said, “we need to stick with the plan”. 

A year later, few think that this change has been delivered: asked what has changed in the last year, the most common response was “nothing”. What’s more, given the choice between the two slogans – “it’s time for change” and “stick to the plan”, Britons are now even more likely (77 per cent) to believe it’s time for change.  

Labour’s broad but shallow coalition is already fracturing. Only 60 per cent of 2024 Labour voters say they would vote for the party again, and they have lost more than half of the voters they gained in the General Election. An election held tomorrow would likely produce an electoral landscape few would recognise: our latest MRP suggests that Reform could be the largest party with 290 seats. 

But this is not solely an indictment of Labour’s first year, our research reveals a deeper and wider belief that key parts of the system are broken, and that politicians of every party are incapable of fixing it. 

What’s gone wrong?

First, Labour misjudged the public mood. In its early months, the government struck a downbeat, sober tone and set out the need for ‘tough choices’. But the public, already exhausted and pessimistic, was looking for hope. One year in, that pessimism has only deepened: seven in ten Britons now say things are getting worse in the UK. 

Second, key spending decisions have undermined support for the government’s wider agenda. The decision to means-test the Winter Fuel Allowance has overshadowed almost every other policy in Labour’s first year. Combined with changes to disability-related benefits and unpopular tax decisions, it has created a sense that the government is targeting the vulnerable. Voters don’t see these decisions in isolation; they see them as part of a bigger picture about the government’s values and priorities. For many, it’s not just about how money is spent, but which groups the government respects, and which it does not. 

This feeds a sense that Labour has lost touch with the people who elected it. Keir Starmer made ‘respect for ordinary people’ a central theme of his campaign, yet the proportion of Britons who believe he lacks respect for them has doubled since last June. More broadly, Britons feel disrespected by politicians of every party, and this has driven the electoral fragmentation that defined Labour’s first year.

What’s next?

Despite serious setbacks, Labour still has a path to recovery, if it can win back voters it has lost on both flanks.  

Just 60 per cent of 2024 Labour voters say they would back the party again, but many remain open to returning. Among those who have switched to the Greens, Liberal Democrats or other progressive parties, a quarter say they would consider voting Labour again within the next four years. For this group, the party’s climbdown on disability benefits was a step in the right direction, but they want to see clearer action on poverty, public services and the climate. Two-thirds of Green and Liberal Democrat voters say they would back Labour tactically in a close race with Reform. 

Labour faces a tougher challenge with voters who have switched to Reform. Re-engaging this group is going to be difficult. But Reform voters are not a homogenous block: just 6 per cent of those who backed Reform in 2024 say they would consider voting Labour today, but among Labour–Reform switchers, that figure rises to 27 per cent. These new Reform supporters are in many ways less ideological than Reform’s core base, and more driven by frustration: most say they feel let down by the political system and are willing to “roll the dice” for something different. They want to see competence, especially on immigration and the cost of living, and will look again at Labour if that is delivered.  

Despite their differences, Labour’s lost voters – left and right – are united by what they want to see next. Cutting NHS waiting lists and easing the cost of living are among the top three priorities for every voter group.

But beyond any one policy, showing – through their words and actions as a Government – that they do respect ordinary people will be essential for the Labour Party if they hope to stay in office long enough to deliver the change they promised.