More in Common’s polling of Welsh adults shows that Labour’s brand remains strong, even if voters hold unfavourable views about Vaughan Gething
Our polling in Wales since the General Election campaign began reveals that Labour starts the election campaign with a 45 per cent vote share, and with the Conservatives falling from 36 per cent in 2019 to 21 per cent if an election was held today.
On a Uniform National Swing model, this gives the following seat changes:
Driving this low approval appears to be the scandal surrounding the donation he received during his campaign to be Labour leader. A third (32%) of Welsh people think Gething should both resign over the scandal and give the money back, and a further 27 per cent think he should give the money back but not resign.
Asked to pick words to describe Gething, the most popular option was “Don’t know” – with 33% selecting this. But the second top word chosen was “shifty” (19%) , followed by “out-of-touch” (15%) and “incompetent” (13%).
In hindsight, a plurality of voters think that electing Gething First Minister was the wrong decision (30%) rather than the right decision (24%), although many more don’t know (46 per cent). Only 15 per cent of Welsh people think that Gething is an improvement on Mark Drakeford.
Despite this, the Welsh Labour brand remains strong, with Labour easily the party with the highest approval rating (-5 pints), and the most trusted party on every issue we asked about apart from Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East (where the Conservatives lead slightly) and standing up for Wales in Westminster (where Plaid Cymru are more trusted).
Another key insight from the poll is the collapse in the Conservative vote as disillusioned voters flock towards Reform UK and the Labour Party. The Conservatives have retained 52% of their 2019 voters in Wales, with 10% now intending to vote Labour, and 15% now intending to vote Reform.
On a smaller scale, disillusioned Labour voters are also leaving the party. Labour has retained 75% of their voters in Wales, but almost one in ten (9%) now intend to vote for Plaid Cymru.
With less than a week to go until the Senedd elections, More in Common’s latest projection finds a tightening race – Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are tied on Senedd seat estimates, while Labour’s vote share is being squeezed in all directions. The MRP model finds that even with Labour and Plaid Cymru in coalition, they could still be just short of a majority.
More in Common’s first Senedd MRP model suggests that the 2026 Senedd election will reshape Welsh politics.
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