With less than a week to go until the Senedd elections, More in Common’s latest projection finds a tightening race – Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are tied on Senedd seat estimates, while Labour’s vote share is being squeezed in all directions. The MRP model finds that even with Labour and Plaid Cymru in coalition, they could still be just short of a majority.

More in Common’s first Senedd MRP model suggests that the 2026 Senedd election will reshape Welsh politics.

More in Common’s final Wales-only poll of the General Election campaign finds Labour set to dominate again in Wales, despite Gething’s approval ratings slumping to new lows