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Support for the Conservatives is set to halve among “Whitby Woman” voters who overwhelmingly backed them at the last election, a new poll shows.

The crucial group has an average age of 61, backed Brexit and voted for Boris Johnson in 2019, but went into this election campaign undecided.

A survey by More in Common, a think tank, of the 40 constituencies with the highest share of “Whitby Woman” voters found that the Tories are set to pick up just one in three of their votes in those seats.

Research by More in Common has suggest Labour’s plan for Great British Energy is one of the main public cut-through policies – along with the Tories’ plans for national service.

Step forward “Whitby woman”, a voter group identified by Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, at the start of the campaign as being pivotal to Conservative hopes. These voters live in places such as Redcar, Northumberland, and (obviously) Scarborough & Whitby, the Yorkshire constituency that voted Conservative in 2019 with a majority of 10,270.

A focus group of non-voters in the city, carried out by More In Common for the Guardian, offers further evidence of the depth of those feelings.

“I work for the NHS so nothing good comes out of elections for me … no one cares,” said Hameder, a trainee nurse.