More in Common’s polling of Greater Manchester ahead of this week’s mayoral by-election finds that Bev Craig is the clear frontrunner, with 39 per cent of voters naming the Labour Party candidate as their first choice – 20 points ahead of her nearest rival.

Sian Astley (Reform UK) is in second place on 19 per cent, followed by Geraldine Coggins (Green Party) on 14 per cent and Phil Eckersley (Conservative Party) on 12 per cent. Richard Kilpatrick (Liberal Democrats) is on 8 per cent, tying with Restore Britain’s Marlon West.

Once second choices are taken into account, Bev Craig leads Sian Astley by 65 per cent to 35 per cent.

Labour boosted by Green second choices, while Conservatives and Restore Britain rally behind Sian Astley

Two-thirds of Green voters (66 per cent) backed Bev Craig as their second choice. On the right, Sian Astley is the main second choice for Restore and Conservative voters.

Meanwhile, slightly over half of first-choice Reform voters put down Restore Britain as their second choice, while first-choice Labour voters are split between the Greens, Conservatives, LIberal Democrats and Reform for their second choice.

Second place is contested, but Labour leads regardless

More in Common’s poll suggests that three parties are vying for second place – Reform UK, the Greens, and the Conservatives. Regardless of which party makes it to the second round, the poll suggests that Labour’s Bev Craig would lead regardless.

Labour’s lead is widest against the Greens, and narrowest against Reform:

• If Bev Craig faces the Greens’ Geraldine Coggins in the second round, the poll suggests that second choices would benefit Labour – winning by 87 per cent to 13 per cent.
• If the second round is Labour versus Conservatives, Labour leads by 77 per cent to 23 per cent.
• In a contest between Labour and Reform, Labour leads by 65 per cent to 35 per cent.

Build your own voting intention

How a pollster decides who counts as a likely voter is one of the biggest judgement calls in any voting intention figure. To make that choice more transparent, More in Common has published an interactive version of its Greater Manchester mayoral by-election voting intention, letting anyone build their own turnout model.

Users can filter by past vote, set your own ‘likelihood to vote’ threshold, and see how the numbers move. Bev Craig’s share ranges from 39 per cent to 47 per cent, and Sian Astley’s from 13 per cent to 19 per cent. 

More in Common’s headline figure uses 10/10 likelihood among registered voters. 

Explore the ineractive tool below:

Both frontrunners are viewed positively

• The two front-running candidates are both viewed positively by Greater Manchester residents: 35 per cent have a favourable view of Bev Craig compared to 10 per cent unfavourable; while 27 per cent have a favourable view of Sian Astley compared to 13 per cent unfavourable.
• The Greens’ Geraldine Coggins and the Conservatives’ Phil Eckersley both have net favourability ratings of +9, although awareness of both figures is low.
• Nigel Farage is the least popular party leader in Greater Manchester with a net favourability rating of -12. Kemi Badenoch (-4) and Zack Polanski (-7) are also negative.
• Andy Burnham has the highest total favourability in Greater Manchester, with 45 per cent holding a positive view of him, while 22 per cent hold an unfavourable view – giving him a net score of plus 23. Bev Craig’s net score is marginally higher, at plus 25, because fewer people hold a favourable view of her than of Burnham.

Most say Burnham has done good for Greater Manchester, and nearly half think he’ll be a good Prime Minister.

• 52 per cent of Greater Manchester residents say Andy Burnham has changed the city-region for the better, compared to 10 per cent who say for the worse and 23 per cent who say he has not made a difference.
• 48 per cent think Burnham will be a good Prime Minister, compared to just 17 per cent who think he will be bad, a net score of plus 31.
• Even Reform voters say Burnham has been good for Greater Manchester: voters planning to back Sian Astley in the mayoral by-election are more likely to say Burnham has changed Greater Manchester for the better than for the worse, by 44 per cent to 23 per cent. But they are much more sceptical about his premiership, with 31 per cent saying he will be a good Prime Minister and 48 per cent a bad one. 

Top issues in this election are cost of living and crime

• Cost of living is the top issue for Greater Manchester residents, named by 51 per cent as one of the biggest issues facing the city-region.
• Crime and antisocial behaviour is second on 30 per cent, followed by access to the NHS on 25 per cent and housing on 24 per cent. 15 per cent name drugs.
• Public transport is among the least frequently named issues, on 9 per cent.

Voters across politics back No.10 North

• 57 per cent of Greater Manchester residents support No.10 North, with just 8 per cent opposed – a net score of plus 49. A quarter (24 per cent) strongly support it.
• Support extends across voter groups. Half of those planning to vote Reform UK in the mayoral by-election support it (50 per cent) against 22 per cent who oppose, while Green Party voters back it by 68 per cent to 6 per cent and Labour Party voters by 78 per cent to 4 per cent.