Our latest research explores the public mood ahead of John Healey’s first Budget on 28 October. It finds that despite a ‘Burnham bounce’ in the polls and less pessimism than last year, Andy Burnham has yet to win back ‘squeezed middle’ voters – most of whom feel pessimistic about the economy and are bracing for a difficult winter.

Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common, said: “Despite their jump in the opinion polls, this research suggests that Andy Burnham and his Chancellor still have their work cut out to persuade the ‘squeezed middle’ – those in work and not eligible for benefits but who are not high earners – that he has their back. 

While Burnham’s Labour Party now leads both among those who are financially comfortable and those who are struggling the most, they trail among the middle group who can cover their essentials but for whom luxuries seem more and more out of reach.

This ‘squeezed middle’ are the most likely to say they are bracing for tax hikes – but already feel they pay too much and want lower taxes. This group also says their energy bills are unaffordable and want help to manage the rising cost of living. 

The risk for Healey and his Chancellor is that this group – who work, or who have worked – feel that the Budget not only fails to do enough to tackle a welfare bill they think is unsustainable, but also reinforces their anger at a broken social contract by only offering energy bill support to those already receiving benefits, leaving them to fend for themselves.”