Labour have promised change at this election, but our polling with UCL Policy Lab suggests that they won’t have long to deliver it before voters start thinking they have been let down. Given the rise of smaller parties, this could spell electoral trouble for Labour in years ahead.

The research finds that most voters are only willing to give Labour less than a year to both blame the Tories for their problems and less than a year to do before they expect to see visible signs of improvement. 

Two in five voters give Labour less than six months to blame their problems on the Tories, while three in five (59%) give them less than a year – this includes more than half of those intending to vote Labour (54%) who give Labour less than a year to blame it on the Tories. 

Six in ten voters give Labour less than a year before they expect a positive difference from Labour – though three in ten voters expect to start seeing a difference from Labour policies within 6 months. 

What do positive signs of change look like? 

The public’s test for what Labour making a difference would look like is lower NHS waiting lists with almost two-thirds of the public (64 per cent) selecting this. This is even more important for Conservative – Labour switchers – 81 per cent of Con-Lab switchers say lower waiting lists will be the key sign that the Labour government is making a positive difference in government. 

Interestingly, there are differences between the different current voter groups on lower levels of immigration – which is top third priority for the public at large, but varies significantly among current voter groups. For current Conservative voter groups, it’s the second top sign of things improving and it’s the top sign for Reform UK voters. However, it’s a much lower priority for current Labour voters and Conservative-Labour switchers where it is the ninth and sixth top sign that a Labour government is turning things around.