New polling by More in Common finds that the public see Nigel Farage’s victory in Clacton as a good result for him personally – but not as a verdict on the finance row that triggered it. Outside Reform UK’s own supporters, few believe that Farage is being unfairly targeted.

Key findings:

• • By a margin of 39 per cent to 15 per cent, Britons say that the Clacton by-election was a good result for Nigel Farage, his own voters overwhelmingly so.
  • Half of Britons (49 per cent) think Farage should face a second by-election if he is found to have broken the rules. Only 34 per cent say he should not.
  • Most Britons (54 per cent) say Farage is being treated like any other MP, compared to just 29 per cent who think he is being singled out.

Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common, said: “If one of Farage’s aims in calling this by-election was to motivate supporters and project confidence, it seems to have proven quite successful: Britons tend to think that the result was a victory for Farage, and among Reform’s own voters four in five say that it was a good result for him.

Yet the public are less aligned with Farage’s hopes that winning the support of the people of Clacton might put the donations row to bed. If Farage is seen to have broken the rules, Britons tend to say he should face a second by-election. Beyond Reform’s own supporters, few think that this by-election lets him off the hook, or that he is being unfairly targeted.

So while it seems the public see Clacton as a victory for Reform, most don’t see it as a vindication of Farage’s position on the finance row. “

The public see Clacton as a good result for Farage

39 per cent of Britons say the Clacton by-election was a good result for Nigel Farage. Just 15 per cent say it was a bad result for him; a quarter (24 per cent) say the result was neither good nor bad for Farage. 

Every voter group, bar the Greens, is more likely to say that Farage’s victory was a good result for him than a bad or neutral one.

• Reform UK voters are emphatic. 78 per cent say it was a good result for Farage, including 47 per cent who say it was a very good one.
• Voters for the other main parties agree. 46 per cent of Conservative voters, 44 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters and 41 per cent of Labour voters say Clacton was a good result for Farage.
• Green Party voters are the exception. Just 17 per cent say it was a good result for him, while 34 per cent say it was a bad one.

But Britons tend to think there should be a second by-election if Farage broke the rules

49 per cent of Britons say that if Nigel Farage is found to have broken parliamentary rules, he should face another by-election in Clacton. 34 per cent say there is no need for another by-election even if he is found to have broken the rules.

Only Reform UK voters believe that Farage should not have to face a second by-election if found to have broken the rules. 76 per cent say there is no need for another by-election even if Farage is found to have broken the rules, while 17 per cent say he should face one.

Conservative voters are split, but lean towards saying there should be another contest. 50 per cent say he should face another by-election if he is found to have broken the rules, against 40 per cent who say there is no need.

Meanwhile 65 per cent of Labour voters, 73 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters and 77 per cent of Green Party voters say that Farage should face another by-election if the standards investigation finds he has broken the rules.