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The Tories would only have won around 40 more seats at the election if Reform had not stood, according to a huge poll.

Research by More in Common and UCL cast doubt on calls for a merger with Nigel Farage's insurgents, suggesting that voters were turned off by the government's 'incompetence' rather than policies.

Polling for More in Common indicates the number of voters that attribute the 4 July loss to us being too rightwing is the same as those who deemed us too leftwing. An ideological swerve won’t get us back into government. What is more important is to rebuild our shattered reputation for competence and unity of purpose.

Last week, the pollster More In Common, in conjunction with the UCL Policy Lab, surveyed 10,000 people and conducted five focus groups in key seats — Cannock Chase, North Herefordshire, Leicester South, Godalming & Ash and Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy — to find out. This first draft of history identifies three key drivers behind voting patterns at this election: change, competence and disillusionment.

We would hear real frustration over Labour on Gaza,” Luke Tryl, of the organisation More in Common, observed of focus groups with Muslim voters, “but very quickly it would come back to a broader point that Labour took Muslim votes for granted and that their communities had been neglected”, an attitude “similar to what you’d hear in the red wall post referendum”.