More in Common’s first poll of Wales since the 2026 Senedd election, sponsored by Cavendish Cymru and Senedd Sources, finds Plaid Cymru’s lead in the Senedd holding firm – but the ‘Burnham Bounce’ has hit Wales as Labour recovers by seven points since the May elections.

Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common, said: “We called the 2026 Senedd election the ‘change election’, because we found that most Welsh voters – whether they backed Plaid Cymru or Reform UK – felt it was time for radical change in how Wales is governed. As Wales’s new governing party gathers for its first conference in government, our latest polling shows how that appetite for change is playing out.

Plaid Cymru have held on to their lead, but the ‘Burnham bounce’ appears to have reached Wales. From their historic low in May, Labour are up seven points in our Senedd voting intention, and Andy Burnham is now the most popular leader in Wales. And while Reform UK have slipped back in the Senedd, our polling suggests they would be the largest party in Wales at a general election. The appetite for radical change that fuelled Reform’s rise this year clearly hasn’t gone away.

So how does the Welsh public feel about Plaid Cymru’s start in government? Its policies are popular – particularly its interventions on the cost of living – but they are struggling to cut through. The best-known moments of this government have been on constitutional issues, above all the independence pact with Scotland and Northern Ireland, and those split voters. What’s clear is that voters across the political spectrum will judge the new Welsh Government on two key tests: the cost of living and the NHS.”