10 years from the EU Referendum, how do Britons remember the Brexit years, and what do they want to see next in our relationship with Europe?

Based on nationally-representative polling – and focus groups in some of the most Leave-voting and evenly split constituencies in the country – our latest research looks at how attitudes have changed over the past decade. Meanwhile our Rejoin MRP provides an interactive map of how Britain might vote in a referendum held today.

Key findings:

Most say the key promises of Brexit have not been delivered.

• 4 in 10 think leaving the EU has made their daily lives worse, which is four times the rate who say it improved their lives.
• A majority think immigration has increased since Brexit. Fewer than 1 in 5 think the promise of increased NHS funding has actually materialised. Over 4 in 10 think Brexit has made them financially worse off with less than 1 in 10 saying it has made them better off.
• This is a mixture of some thinking that Brexit has made the country worse, but also that the policy issues most important to them have stagnated or worsened since 2016/2019. 

It’s not a question of whether Brexit has gone wrong, but why – and who is to blame.

• Few think Brexit has worked, but the public are divided on why it has failed:  was the project inherently flawed or did politicians let Brexit down? 
• Britons lean towards blaming Brexit’s failure on politicians with nearly half (46 per cent) saying it could have worked but politicians handled it badly. However, a significant proportion (35 per cent) think Brexit was never going to work.

Global insecurity is pointing many Britons toward Europe.

• Widespread concern over the UK’s war-readiness, fraying transatlantic relations, the pervasive cost of living crisis and frustration over a failure to control migration have all led Britons to reconsider the UK’s relationship with the EU. For some, Europe could provide a sense of nostalgia and security.
• 64 per cent think the UK is not ready to  defend itself in a war at home tomorrow.
• Following the outbreak of war in Iran, the proportion of Britons who considered the US an ally fell to less than 2 in 5 as close to 1 in 5 saw the US as an enemy.
• There is now strong public support for greater cooperation with the EU on defence.

Half of Britons say they would vote to rejoin the EU in a referendum, but there are two key barriers that could shape a real referendum:

• Britons don’t really want to give up sovereignty: most Britons say it would not be worth limiting the British government’s powers for a closer relationship with the EU. All right-leaning segments say that accepting ECJ jurisdiction would be unacceptable.
• The public worry about what kind of deal Britain would get from rejoining. Only 3 in 10 think the EU would offer favourable conditions for rejoining, while 45 per cent say they would try to punish us by offering unfavourable conditions. Across both sides of the debate, many worry about the prospect of returning to the EU “cap-in-hand”, with our place in the world diminished and our bargaining power weakened, and ending up with a bad deal.

A Brexit map of Britain Today

In a referendum held today, just 11 of Britain’s 632 constituencies would vote to stay out of the EU – all of them in England.

Even the most eurosceptic seat in the country, South Basildon and East Thurrock, would still see 48% vote to rejoin. Scotland would vote unanimously to rejoin, with Glasgow North East the most pro-rejoin constituency in Britain at 87%. And perhaps most strikingly, 97% of seats that voted Leave in 2016 would now return a majority for rejoining the EU.