Plaid Cymru’s support is highest in Welsh-speaking strongholds, but it is also winning urban seats at the expense of Labour.

Plaid Cymru’s support is strongest in Welsh-speaking north and west – Gwynedd Maldwyn, Bangor Conwy Môn, Ceredigion Penfro, and Sir Gaerfyrddin – where it leads on between 37 per cent and 44 per cent.

But Plaid is also projected to win five seats in Cardiff and Swansea, where Labour’s fragmenting urban vote leaves the field open.

Labour facing historic collapse in Wales

Since devolution, Labour has always been the largest party in the Senedd, and never fallen below 43 per cent of seats in the Senedd. Under this model, Labour would fall into third place and win just 25 per cent of seats.

Labour’s collapse in Wales is not confined to one direction or one type of seat. The party is being squeezed from the right by Reform, and by Plaid Cymru and the Greens on the left. It is likely to lose its historic Welsh Valley strongholds, and see a fall in support in its urban base.

Labour wins only 4 of the 16 constituencies, and does not top 25 per cent of the vote in a single constituency.

Labour looks likely to lose its heartlands in the Welsh Valleys, which will be split three-ways between Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform. Even in Cardiff, Labour is squeezed from both sides: in Caerdydd Penarth, Plaid Cymru is just 2 points behind, while in Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf, Labour and Reform are tied at 21.4%

Reform set to become official opposition in Wales

With 28 seats to Plaid Cymru’s 30, Reform UK is almost tied for first place. Having barely contended in the 2021 Senedd Election, Reform is now set to form the official opposition in Wales.

Reform is on track to come first in 8 out of 16 constituencies, with Plaid and Labour first in four each. However, the new proportional electoral system means that Reform will not see the same boost it might receive under first-past-the-post.

Reform UK now looks set to make significant gains in every part of the country, and pose a threat to every other party.

Reform’s strongest performances are in the south Wales valleys, but the party’s reach extends across the whole country. Reform polls above 20 per cent in 13 of the 16 constituencies, reaching 23 per cent in even strongly Plaid-leaning areas like Sir Gaerfyrddin and Gwynedd Maldwyn

Reform supplants the Conservatives as the party of the Welsh right

The Conservatives, by contrast, are projected to be pushed into fourth place, winning just 7 seats in total and topping 18 per cent nowhere. 

The Welsh Conservatives are projected to perform best in the North East (Clwyd) and English borders (Sir Fynwy Torfaen). Yet even in these areas of historic Conservative strength, they are outpolled by Reform.

Greens earn their first ever seats in the Senedd

Since the formation of the Senedd in 1999, the Green Party has never held a seat. This model suggests that they could win a seat in four constituencies – Caerdydd Penarth, Fflint Wrecsam, and Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf, and Casnewydd Islwyn

Their support is concentrated in urban and suburban areas: their three strongest showings are all in Cardiff and its surroundings, where they poll between 15 per cent and 20 per cent.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said:

Looking at Wales today, it’s hard to believe that the 2024 General Election was less than two years ago – the political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales. Having governed in Wales for 28 years, Labour is set to be pushed into third place – and for the first time we could see Wales led by a non-Labour First Minister.

Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh Government for the first time. But it may be a tricky start – potentially requiring sharing power with a weakened Labour Party that, despite its losses, could still wield considerable influence over the shape of any coalition.”

The other story of this election is Reform’s breakthrough. Their support spans the whole country – beyond the valleys to Cardiff and the north-east – they have firmly displaced the Conservatives as the party of the Welsh right.