With polling day just around the corner, More in Common has published its final MRP projections and polling for elections across Britain. Here is a summary of our projections for London, Birmingham, England, Scotland, and Wales.
London: MRP and Implied Voting Intention
More in Common's first ever London MRP finds Labour holding on as the leading party in the capital, but on a dramatically reduced vote share: down 15 points since the 2024 General Election. The Greens and Reform UK have been the main beneficiaries of this fragmentation, with the Greens estimated to lead the vote in a London borough for the first time ever.
|
Party |
Implied Voting Intention |
Change since 2024 GE |
|
Labour |
28% |
-15pp |
|
Greens |
20% |
+10pp |
|
Conservatives |
17% |
-4pp |
|
Reform UK |
15% |
+6pp |
|
Liberal Democrats |
14% |
+3pp |
|
Independents and Others |
6% |
+3pp |
Labour leads in 21 of 32 boroughs but does not break 40 per cent anywhere, and six of those are incredibly marginal so too close to call. The Greens are the second-placed party in 16 of Labour's 21 boroughs. Reform UK is projected to lead the vote in Havering and is neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in Bexley. The Conservatives are reduced to leading in five outer London strongholds, and the Liberal Democrats consolidate their hold on three south-west London boroughs.
Scotland: MRP and Latest Voting Intention
More in Common's final Scottish poll shows the SNP maintaining a clear lead on the constituency vote, based on our MRP model, with Reform UK cementing its position as the second-largest force in Holyrood. Labour ticks up in the final days of the campaign, but remains well down on historic levels.
|
Party |
Latest Poll Constituency Share |
Latest Poll Regional Share |
|
SNP |
32 |
23 |
|
Reform UK |
18 |
22 |
|
Labour |
20 |
19 |
|
Lib Dems |
13 |
12 |
|
Conservatives |
13 |
10 |
|
Greens |
2 |
10 |
The most notable movement is from Labour, whose constituency and regional vote shares both tick up by around 3 points compared to the previous week. The SNP dips slightly on both votes. Reform, the Lib Dems, the Conservatives, and the Greens all hold broadly steady. 18 per cent of Scottish voters remain undecided.
In our final Scotland MRP published last week, we showed the SNP on track to win the most number of seats, but still falling short of a majority, and Reform in second place. This was before the late swing towards the Labour party captured in our most recent voting intention poll.
|
Party |
Constituency Seats |
List |
Total seats |
|
SNP |
60 |
0 |
60 |
|
Reform UK |
2 |
20 |
22 |
|
Labour |
0 |
13 |
13 |
|
Lib Dems |
7 |
5 |
12 |
|
Conservatives |
3 |
9 |
12 |
|
Greens |
1 |
9 |
10 |
Wales: MRP and Implied Voting Intention
More in Common's final Senedd MRP projects a dead heat: Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are tied on 34 seats each, with neither close to the 49 needed for a majority. Labour is set for a historic collapse, falling into third place on just 14 seats. The Greens are on course to enter the Senedd for the first time.
|
Party |
Seats |
Implied Vote Share |
Change since 2021 Regional List |
Seat Change on Last MRP |
|
Plaid Cymru |
34 |
30% |
+9 |
+4 |
|
Reform UK |
34 |
27% |
+26 |
+6 |
|
Labour |
14 |
16% |
-20 |
-10 |
|
Conservatives |
9 |
12% |
-13 |
+2 |
|
Greens |
5 |
9% |
+5 |
+1 |
|
Liberal Democrats |
0 |
4% |
— |
-3 |
Plaid Cymru leads on vote share at 30 per cent, with its strongest support in North and West Wales. Reform UK tops the poll in 9 out of 16 constituencies, with its strongest performances in the Valleys and Newport. Labour leads in none of the 16 constituencies and does not top 21 per cent in any. A Plaid–Labour coalition would fall one seat short of a majority on these numbers.
England: Headline Voting Intention
More in Common's headline voting intention, which was conducted in areas of England with Local Elections (e.g. not a projected national share), shows Reform UK in the lead on 28 per cent, ahead of Labour on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent. The Green Party are on 14 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats narrowly behind on 13 per cent and Other/Independent candidates on 5 per cent.
|
Party |
May 2026 VI |
|
Reform UK |
28% |
|
Labour |
23% |
|
Conservative |
20% |
|
Green Party |
14% |
|
Liberal Democrats |
13% |
|
Other/Independent |
3% |
The following is a broad estimate based on current More in Common voting intention at a national level. While a range of council seat outcomes are plausible in this set of elections, and small changes in vote share or distribution can have a large effect on totals, a rough sense of what the night may look like for each party would be: Reform +1400, Conservatives -600, Labour -1500, Liberal Democrat +200 and Greens +600.
Birmingham – Council Voting Intention
More in Common’s polling of Birmingham council voting intention finds Reform UK leading on 26 per cent, ahead of Labour on 23 per cent. The Green Party is in third on 18 per cent, with the Conservatives on 15 per cent, Independents and Others on 12 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 7 per cent.
Our seat projection of Birmingham Council based on swing suggests this would result in 47 council seats for Reform UK (+47 from 2022), 17 for Independents (+17), 14 for Labour (-51), 12 for Green (+10), 5 for Liberal Democrats (-7), 6 for Conservative (-14).
|
Party |
Voting intention |
|
Reform |
26% |
|
Labour |
23% |
|
Green Party |
18% |
|
Conservatives |
15% |
|
Liberal Democrats |
7% |
|
Independents and Others |
12% |
