Our first Scottish MRP projects that the SNP will remain the largest party in Holyrood - but squeezed on all sides and short of a majority. Meanwhile Reform UK is on track to break through North of the border for the first time.
More in Common's first Holyrood MRP model suggests that the SNP are on track to lose seats but remain the largest party - as they will end up on 56 seats, down from 64 in 2021.
This means they will likely be reliant on the Greens to govern, who pick up eight seats, including their first constituency seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow. Together they could be one seat short of a majority.
Reform are breaking through and look to become the second largest party in Holyrood winning their first two constituency seats, and picking up a seat in every regional constituency, leaving them on 22 seats overall.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are regaining seats in their historic heartlands across the the Highlands, trebelling their vote share since 2021.
Labour and the Conservatives face big losses.
|
Constituency seats |
List seats |
Total seats |
|
|
SNP |
55 |
1 |
56 |
|
Reform UK |
2 |
20 |
22 |
|
Labour |
3 |
14 |
17 |
|
Conservatives |
3 |
9 |
12 |
|
Liberal Democrats |
8 |
6 |
14 |
|
Greens |
2 |
6 |
8 |
SNP loses ground in all directions, but remains largest party
This MRP estimates the SNP winning 56 of 129 seats - comfortably the largest party, but nine short of a majority, and likely forced to rely on the support of the Scottish Greens to govern.
The SNP still dominates the constituency map, winning 55 of 73 seats. Their support is highest in central Scotland strongholds - Inverclyde, Coatbridge and Chryston, and Argyll and Bute all return SNP members with over 45 per cent of the vote.
But the SNP is estimated to lose seven constituency seats compared to 2021 - losing ground on all sides. Reform takes Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast. The Liberal Democrats reclaim Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and take Strathkelvin and Bearsden, a seat the SNP held with a 7,000-vote majority four years ago. The Greens break through in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill and Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith. Labour reclaims Edinburgh Central, in a three-way race with the Greens. Scotland’s ruling party is being squeezed from right, left, and centre at the same time.
Reform UK becomes the opposition in Holyrood
Reform UK's Scottish breakthrough could prove the defining story of this election. The party is estimated to win 22 seats in total - 2 constituencies and 20 list seats - becoming the official opposition at Holyrood for the first time. Having been almost entirely absent from Scottish politics at the last election, Reform is now the second largest party in Scotland's parliament.
The party polls above 25 per cent in 20 of 73 constituencies, with its strongest performances concentrated in the north-east and parts of the central belt.
Conservatives are in retreat
The party that was second in Scotland just four years ago collapses from 31 to 12 MSPs. They are projected to win three constituency seats and a further 9 from the regional list vote. If the party were to return only 12 MSPs, it would be the Conservatives’ worst ever Holyrood result.
Labour takes third place with a reduced parliamentary presence
Labour wins 17 seats, a loss of 5 MSPs compared to 2021. The party's near-absence from Scottish constituencies, topping 30 per cent in only a handful of seats, reflects how far it has fallen from its position once being Scotland's dominant party.
The party wins three constituency seats but the projected victories are fragile - the race in post-industrial Dumbarton is a statistical dead heat. Their two Edinburgh seats tell a different story: Edinburgh Southern, covering affluent Morningside and Marchmont, is Labour's strongest seat anywhere in Scotland at 40%; Edinburgh Central is a knife-edge three-way contest between Labour, the SNP and the Greens, each polling in the mid-to-high twenties.
Liberal Democrat resurgence
The Liberal Democrats win 14 seats - 8 constituencies and 6 list seats - trebling their presence in Holyrood compared to 2021.
They are regaining their seats across their heartlands in the North of Scotland: Shetland (56%), Fife North East (53%), Orkney (49%), and Caithness, Sutherland and Ross (49%) are among their safest seats. As well as making gains in urban (Edinburgh North Western, Edinburgh Northern) and suburban (Strathkelvin and Bearsden) constituencies.
Greens are potential kingmakers
The Scottish Greens win 8 seats, matching their 2021 total, despite the acrimonious collapse of the Bute House Agreement with the SNP in 2024. Their two constituency wins come in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill and Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith. Both are urban progressive seats where the Green vote is strong enough to squeeze both Labour and the SNP.
The Greens' 8 seats make them potential kingmakers: a Nationalist SNP-Green coalition would reach 64 seats, one short of a majority.
All to play for
Over half of the constituency seats are three- or four-way marginals, meaning small shifts in vote share could lead to large changes in the seat distribution and redraw the map entirely. 39 constituency seats are decided by margins of under 5 points.
There are three-way fights of all colours. Dumbarton is incredibly tight with Labour, Reform, and the SNP all within less than one point of each other. Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith presents a different kind of three-way squeeze, Greens, Labour, and SNP separated by only a couple of points, while in Galloway and West Dumfries, Conservative, Reform, and Labour are also all within two points.
The tightest race in Scotland is Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, where the SNP and Conservatives are separated by less than one tenth of a percentage point.