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To Luke Tryl, UK director of More In Common, undecided voters who backed the Tories in 2019 will be key to minimising Tory damages. “We know from focus groups that these voters are the most receptive to the ‘we’ve turned a corner’ message,” he says.

These undecided voters are 70 per cent female, tend to live in small towns, are homeowners and typically in their early 60s. “They live in places like Whitby, and Scarborough & Whitby is one of the seats that could get Labour the majority, if you assume they make gains in Scotland.”

Analysis for The Telegraph by the polling group More in Common found that if Reform secures 9pc of the vote the Conservatives will win 35 fewer seats as a result.

But if it won 14pc, a level at which it has consistently polled in recent months, then the impact would be even starker, costing the Tories 64 MPs.

Britain's opposition Labour Party has a 17-percentage point lead over Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party in the first opinion poll conducted since he unexpectedly set a July 4 date for national elections on Wednesday.

The prime minister has been waiting for inflation to fall to prove he can be trusted with the nation’s economic security and that his plan to make things better for the hardest-hit has worked. But recent polls suggest Labour outscores the Conservatives for being the party believed to represent working families and is more trusted with the economy. According to the More in Common thinktank, 65% of voters believe the Tories are for rich people.

An analysis published by the More in Common thinktank in February found that the main reason given by voters planning to back Reform at the next election is to control immigration.