Key findings:
- A “final chance” – Burnham can’t rely on a honeymoon: The line from Burnham’s victory speech that cut through with most voters was his promise of the “final chance to change” Britain. One voter described “shouting at the telly” in agreement while watching it. But many feel unsure about what Burnham’s plan to change the country looks like and want greater clarity.
- Devolution can’t just mean Manchester: The devolution agenda resonates, but voters want proof that Burnham’s vision will reach beyond Inner Manchester. Some voters described the North-South divide described by Burnham as really a “Manchester-London divide,” with places like Wigan “forgotten about.”
- The “Makerfield Test” starts with the cost of living: Burnham’s own “Makerfield Test” will be judged first on tangible improvements to people’s quality of life. Voters cited the Greater Manchester bus fare cap unprompted as proof he can deliver, and want to see more of this on a national scale.
- Makerfield still wants a local MP: Even as Prime Minister, voters want Burnham to remain a champion for the local area, continuing to be visible on hyperlocal issues like transport, antisocial behaviour and flooding. One voter said she wanted “someone who we can bother about the potholes”.
- Nigel Farage faces a grave threat: Some voters in Makerfield say they are backing Reform in spite of Nigel Farage rather than because of him, with distrust of him personally growing as the finance row first began to emerge, and his response to the Nowak case polarising voters. Among left-leaning voters, many felt compelled to vote against Reform, boosting Andy Burnham’s Labour Party.
A “final chance to change” Britain
Shown a clip of Burnham’s acceptance speech, the line that resonated most with voters – including some Reform voters – was his promise to change politics, described as the “final chance to change.” Some Burnham voters said he sounded “like a Prime Minister” for the first time. Lisa from Winstanley described “shouting at the telly”, urging Andy Burnham not to waste his last chance.
“I was actually shouting at the telly this morning, eating my breakfast, watching that acceptance speech … I was agreeing with everything going, ‘Yes, Andy, it is your last chance’. It’s your last chance saloon! Don’t waste it, mate!”
Lisa, Teacher, Winstanley
“As a non-Labour supporter, it’s given me a little bit of hope (…) As he said in his speech, he’s listening to people… that they’re giving him a chance and he knows he’s got three years. He’s got three years here and if they don’t sort it out, if he’s not true to his word, then they’re all out of a job.”
Alex, Machine Manufacturer, Ashton
“I think he’s entirely right there, where he talks about the final chance of change. That’s definitely how I feel.”
Simon, Student, Ashton
“He’s saying it like a prime minister coming in. The first time in years and years where I thought, yeah, this guy. Yeah. And to be fair, that’s the first time I’ve actually thought of him like that as well.”
Daniel, Marketing Manager, Ashton
While one Reform voter said that this line gave him “a little bit of hope”, there was a widespread sense that Burnham’s promise of change so far lacked substance. Over the summer, Makerfield residents want to see more detail on how Burnham will deliver his agenda on devolution, the cost of living, and championing places like Makerfield.
“I don’t think that was an acceptance speech. I think that was the opening gambit of going for the leadership. I don’t know if people are old enough, but you know that “things can only get better” – I was minded of that kind of sentiment. There’s not a lot of content in there. There’s not a lot of policy, but he is pulling on the heartstrings at this point.”
Peter, Account Manager, Orrell.
“In his speech he said everybody knows politics isn’t working and we all need change and we’ve got to have hope. He hasn’t once said how he’s going to change politics to make everybody feel happier.”
Susan, Therapist, Ashton
Devolution can’t just mean Manchester
Burnham’s appeal has always rested on being seen as a champion of the North and a challenger to Westminster, and that was a key driver of his vote in Makerfield. But voters were clear that this promise will be tested on whether it reaches beyond Inner Manchester.
Some voters felt that the North-South divide, as currently framed by Burnham, as really just a divide between Manchester and London, with towns like Wigan forgotten. One voter said Burnham’s “legacy will depend” on whether he can deliver a programme of devolution that is felt in places like Makerfield.
“I think that’s weak and it’s an excuse, just because he wants to be basically prime minister … this North-South divide, it’s more Manchester-focused and London-focused. Places like Wigan sadly just get forgotten about.”
Alice, Associate Architect, Hindley Green
“I think there’s been more consideration for the north of the country for the last probably 10 years or so … but it still hasn’t really been delivered. You can see that with how HS2 was cancelled any further north … Whether he can deliver it is a different matter, but his legacy will depend on it absolutely.”
Alan, Warehouse Manager, Winstanley
The “Makerfield Test” must start with the cost of living
Voters will judge Andy Burnham first and foremost on the cost of living: the issue driving the wider sense of “broken Britain” more than any other. Many felt the Labour government had failed to tackle this, or made things harder; even a year after the policy was partially reversed, the decision to means-test the Winter Fuel Allowance came up repeatedly throughout the campaign.
“I’ve never known a Labour government make it more difficult for the working class. And that’s what he seems to have done.”
Melissa, Retired, Ashton
“The winter fuel allowance — that was the first time I was eligible for it and didn’t get it. Retirement as well as being done by WASPI, because they ripped the pension from me without telling me. And the thing is with Labour is my granddad was a pit man, he died of pneumoconiosis, all my father’s family were Labour through and through. And I am finding it so difficult to even think about Labour.”
Carol, Retired Prison Service Worker, Bryn
While voters want to see radical change, there’s also a clear appetite for smaller but more tangible interventions on the cost of living. One of Burnham’s most praised policies as mayor of Greater Manchester was the bus fare cap. It emerged as evidence that politicians can still make a meaningful difference, at a time where many feel the national government is unable to do so.
“I’m already feeling the benefits of what he’s done … having the bus fare reduced makes a massive difference. It saved me about 60 quid a month, just by him capping the bus fare – and I think everybody in whatever wage bracket you’re in is feeling it.”
Ella, Nurse, Highfield
“If we don’t get our own country sorted out soon, we’re going to be in big trouble.”
Mike, Semi-Retired Veteran Support Officer, Ashton
Makerfield voters don’t want to lose their local MP
Burnham has pledged to treat Makerfield as a “touch stone, not a stepping stone”, and voters said they will hold him to it.
Alongside the national mission, they want him to remain present on distinctly local, hyperlocal concerns. Many described the previous MP Josh Simons positively because of his engagement with local issues, and Burnham’s victory was, in part, driven by his perception as a local champion.
Many in Makerfield feel that transport, potholes, and infrastructure have fallen short; concern about anti-social behaviour, flooding and the decline of the high street in Ashton and Wigan. Several voters worried that, once in Downing Street, Burnham would no longer have time for the issues facing the constituency.
“I wanted someone who’s going to help Makerfield who we can bother with potholes and small issues.”
Alice, Associate Architect, Hindley Green
“The transport around the area is … my mum’s off in Bickershaw Lane, that’s so unreliable and hard work. There’s a great system in principle, but there’s issues there that need looking at. Just the roads and the transport would be an issue for me — and stop digging the roads every five minutes.”
Sophie, School Administrator, Hindley
(Asked what the “Makerfield test” looks like in practice): “I think being present as a start, actually being present. Josh Simons was — I’ve only really known him in the last year or so, but he was very present from what I’ve heard. He was always around. He was here to talk and listen and respond back to people.”
Alice, Associate Architect, Hindley Green
“Andy’s been quite proactive in helping with the flooding in Plattbridge — regardless, before he became a candidate for MP — and also the Bickershaw big waste problem. He was actively involved in that as well. So he has proactively been working for Makerfield before all this came about.”
Cath, Charity Worker, Platt Bridge
Farage faces electoral threat, as his shine wears off for some voters
Nigel Farage remains one of Reform’s greatest electoral assets, and his hard line on immigration appealed to many voters in Makerfield. But perhaps for the first time, a growing group now seem to back Reform in spite of Farage rather than because of him.
As the £5 million donation row began to emerge throughout the campaign, and Farage’s response to Henry Nowak’s murder landed badly with some voters, some also felt compelled to vote against Farage’s Reform UK. Meanwhile, for the third by-election in a row, Reform’s choice of candidate had a polarising effect on the contest that hurt support for the party.
With Farage now embroiled in a finance row – and Reform’s consolidation of the right of British politics looking more precarious than ever – the report suggests warning signs for the Reform leader.
“People who I’ve spoken to with regard to the Reform Party, the biggest majority of them, they aren’t racist, they’re just interested in the country and they’re patriotic … personally, I don’t like Farage and I don’t think he’ll ever be prime minister. I think the party needs another leader.”
Maisie, Retired, Hindley
“When you read about this four million pound house he bought, he avoided paying tax because he put it in his girlfriend’s name or whatever he’s done. I don’t think much of him to be honest.”
Laura, Retail Worker, Ashton
