From protest to power?

Is reform becoming mainstream?

While the 2024 General Election was a breakthrough moment for Reform UK, that election now appears to be just the tip of the iceberg. A new report by More in Common and UK in a Changing Europe shows that since that election, Reform has successfully appealed to broad swathes of the electorate that UKIP or the Brexit Party could not reach, including in Wales and Scotland.

Forty-two per cent of voters are now in reach of the party. This includes those who voted for Reform in the 2024 General Election, currently support the party, or would consider voting Reform in an election held today. This rises to 49 per cent when including all those with a positive view of Nigel Farage.

Reform’s growth, and the broadening of its appeal, means that the party’s supporters are increasingly starting to reflect the median British voters: in demographics, daily life, and even in many of their political views.

Reform supporters are more politically diverse in their voting history: just two in five of the party’s current supporters voted for the party in 2024, with many arriving from Labour, the Conservatives, or from not voting at all; only a small minority (16 per cent) have voted for UKIP or the Brexit Party in a previous election. 

The party’s demographic base is broadening: the gender gap in Reform’s support has narrowed to a level similar to Labour’s, and the party has a more even age distribution than either of the main parties. The party’s new supporters are also less online than its 2024 base, with fewer relying on social media for news. Asked about their lifestyle and preferences, Reform UK supporters are distinctively ‘normal’, with the party leading among Britons who enjoy pub gardens, Wimbledon, cheddar, and fish and chips.

In many of their social attitudes, Reform supporters are aligned with the wider public. While Reform voters are unique in the importance they place on tackling immigration on other social issues they reflect the median voter. Three in five Reform voters support gay marriage - almost as much as the public as a whole (59 per cent compared to 63 per cent)

68 per cent think increased participation of women in education and the workforce is a good thing compared to 74 per cent of the public. Reform supporters are in line with the median on abortion limits - 46 per cent of Reform voters and the wider public think the current limit is fine, only 25 per cent believe it should be reduced - the same as Tory and Labour supporters

However, Reform voters stand out in a few key ways: with education now a significant cleavage in British politics, four in five Reform supporters do not hold a university degree, and this group is more likely than supporters of any other party to have vocational or technical qualifications. 

Reform supporters are also less likely to engage with the BBC and national newspapers such as The Times, The Independent and especially The Guardian, while tuning in more frequently to GB News and reading The Daily Mail. If the electorate were limited to frequent GB News viewers, Reform UK would lead with 71 per cent of the vote. Behind these patterns lies a broader scepticism: Reform supporters are the only voter group with negative net trust in the BBC and are generally less trusting of other mainstream broadcasters overall.

Another shared feature of Reform’s supporters is their focus on migration: three in five Reform supporters say they would support the party because of its immigration policies - the top reason by nearly 30-points. For no other party does one issue dominate voter motivations as much as immigration drives Reform voters. 

Reform supporters may be Britain’s most dissatisfied voters: perhaps the most distinctive feature of Reform’s support base is their shared sense of pessimism about the state of the country: they are more likely than any other voter group to believe that things in the UK are getting worse, that the country is becoming more dangerous, and - tied with the Green Party - to believe that the country needs radical change.

Reform supporters are united in their belief that the country and our politics are broken - but they differ on how deep the problems go, and increasingly, on what the answers should be.

Cracks emerging

Reform’s new, mainstream support is a testament to their ability to build a broader appeal - but it is also a challenge.

Reform’s supporters now look far less like an ideologically consistent block, and more like a disillusioned broad church. Their new supporters are more moderate in many of their views. For example, they have far lower approval for figures on the online right such as Tommy Robinson, Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

And these gaps are made wider by the fact that Reform’s supporters come from a wide range of political backgrounds. For example, Reform supporters’ views on the economy differ dramatically based on their previous voting history. Supporters who have switched from Labour in the past year are strongly in favour of wealth distribution: two-thirds believe the government should redistribute income from the better-off to the less well-off, compared to just 23 per cent of Conservative-Reform switchers.

These gaps extend to a range of issues, including benefits, the war in Ukraine and climate change. While Labour-Reform switchers firmly support Net Zero, the rest of Reform’s coalition as sceptical of it - most of all those who have switched from the Conservatives.

Reform’s segment base is also shifting. In 2024, nearly half of Reform voters belonged to the Dissenting Disruptor segment - a frustrated group that craves transformational change and is often willing to accept chaos, or racial, untested solutions.

Dissenting Disruptors remain Reform’s core base: they have higher approval of Nigel Farage than any other segment, and would overwhelmingly vote for the party if an election was held tomorrow. Yet they now make up a smaller part of the party’s coalition, as they increasingly win voters from the Traditional Conservative and Rooted Patriot segments. Dissenting Disruptors now make up just over a third of the party’s support, while these other segments are becoming increasingly important.

The main way that these segments differ from Reform’s core base is in their theory of change. While Dissenting Disruptors want rapid, transformational change in society, Traditional Conservatives and Rooted Patriots prefer slow, incremental reform. They overwhelmingly think the country needs change, but will also value credibility and stability.

This presents a range of challenges that could face Reform UK in coming years. In order to hold together and expand their more diverse coalition, they will need to find a policy agenda that goes beyond migration, and appeals to its supporters’ varying views on the economy, climate and other issues. Additionally, if it hopes to consolidate gains among different segments on the right of British politics, it will need to address their concerns about their credibility, perceptions of racism and extremism, and a lack of experience.