West Midlands Combined Authority Mayoral Elections - Poll suggests a dead heat

The West Midlands Combined Authority covers Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton. Andy Street, a Conservative, has served two terms as Mayor and is standing for re-election with Richard Parker of Labour his main challenger.

Based on national polling, Andy Street should be headed for defeat in his second re-election bid. Yet, this polling finds Street significantly outpolling the Conservatives’ national average in the West Midlands and in a statistical dead heat with his Labour opponent Richard Parker. Street leads 41% to Parker’s 39% percent. Street’s personal approval rating is +17, higher than most national politicians. 

In our focus group of voters in the West Midlands, attitudes to Street were undoubtedly more positive than those of almost any other politician we have spoken to voters about in recent years. There was genuine recognition of his work for the area from the Metro tram extensions to the Commonwealth Games. Voters liked the fact that Street acted as a national champion for the West Midlands, that he wasn’t seen as overly partisan (or even a Conservative), and crucially that he did what he promised to do. 

 The election then looks set to be determined by: 

1. Whether Street’s personal brand is enough to overcome Tory brand toxicity and Rishi Sunak’s ratings.
2. Whether Labour are able to squeeze the Green vote and the Conservatives the Reform UK vote - both of which sit at 8% in the poll.

Street leads Parker among over-55 year-olds, but Parker is ahead among younger voters. Andy Street also enjoys a lead among women, leading by 44% to Parker’s 35%.

Street is managing to keep this race close because unlike the Conservatives nationally he is holding on to most of those who voted Conservative in 2019. 80% of those who voted Tory in 2019 are backing Andy Street, with only 10% intending to vote for Reform’s Elaine Williams.

Street has strong approval ratings in the West Midlands

Andy Street has a positive personal approval rating in the West Midlands. His net approval rating is +17, much higher than national politicians, almost all of whom are under water.

This strong approval rating is also reflected in our focus group in Solihull. The reaction to Street was among the most positive we have heard about a politician. Voters knew Andy Street (one person said ‘he’s a household name’) and thought he had done a good job as mayor over the last seven years. Crucially they had tangible improvements to point to across Birmingham - from expanding the tram system to the success of the Commonwealth games that they credited Street with having delivered. 

Street is outperforming Conservative polling average  

Part of the explanation of why Street is outperforming the Conservative’s national polling is that many of the voters we spoke to don’t see Andy Street as only a Conservative and believe he has strong outreach across the community. Participants in our focus groups also didn’t think that electing Street next week would be an endorsement of Sunak in any way. 

Voters’ views on the Labour Candidate - Richard Parker 

Only a few people were aware of the Labour candidate for West Midlands Mayor, Richard Parker. His campaign video led to a mixed reaction from participants. However, Parker is clearly benefiting from the national mood music and weakness of the Tory brand more generally, meaning that the race remains a toss-up. 

As with other areas, reducing crime and anti-social behaviour is the top priority for voters in the West Midlands - along with high street regeneration, public transport improvements and building more homes. Participants thought it was important for the Mayor to be someone with sound business acumen.