Sunak's Choice

Ahead of next week’s budget, More in Common releases a new report ‘Sunak’s Choice’ a deep dive into what the public think about the choices facing the Prime Minister and Chancellor next week. Using the unique lens of More in Common’s British Seven Segments of the population, the report looks at who the different groups hold responsible for the economic crisis, how they’d approach trying to balance the books and which leader most appeals to them.

The report sets out the challenge Rishi Sunak faces in trying to rebuild the 2019 Conservative Coalition.

In extensive polling from Public First and focus groups of typical Blue Wall voters (More in Common’s Established Liberals segment) and typical Red Wall voters (More in Common’s Loyal National segment), the report finds that when it comes to the economy, these groups of voters look in opposite directions: 

• Blue Wall voters are more likely to accept the government’s argument that economic difficulties are caused by global factors outside their control (49% v 29% average)
• 64% of Blue Wall voters think the government has a mandate for spending cuts because of the changed economic circumstances since the last election, while only 34% of Red Wall voters, who want to see the 2019 manifestos promise of investment delivered, say the same.
• Blue Wall voters want to see the Government go for growth over tackling inequality – Red Wall voters are more split.
• Support for tax raising measures (including increasing income tax on high earners) is significantly lower for Blue Wall voters compared to Red Wall voters

On the cost of living, these splits between the two flanks of the Conservative historic 2019 majority are even more stark:

• 7 in 10 (69%) of Red Wall voters think ‘too little’ is being done to help people with the cost of living, while 59% of Blue Wall voters disagree saying either ‘enough’ or ‘too much’ is being done to help people out.
• Red Wall voters (41%) are more than twice as likely to fear the cost of living crisis will never end than Blue Wall voters (18%)

In this context of split, the report outlines the political choices facing the Government:

• Sunak has a clear appeal to Blue Wall voters who up until now had been abandoning the Tories. These voters are now saying they’ll vote Tory at the next election in the same level as in 2019. A remarkable turnaround given the 16-point swing against the Conservatives across the board. Indeed, they are the only one of the British Seven Segments where the Tories vote share is not down compared to the last election.
• However, Red Wall voters continue to abandon the Conservatives. Their share of the vote with typical Red Wall voters is now down from 56% in 2019 to just 32% today.
• Labour have overtaken the Conservatives with this group of Red Wall voters for the first time since 2017.
• Double of the number of Red Wall voters (36%) than Blue Wall voters (18%) say there is no chance of them voting Conservative at the next election.

Despite these differences in opinion what should be done about the economic crisis, the report identifies some common ground solutions that unite the different parts of the country Most of the public accept the hard truths of our economic difficulties and understand that difficult decisions have to be taken to resolve them. There is also some consensus about where those difficult decisions should and shouldn’t fall - support for further windfall taxes extends across the voting public. Among the Tory voting segments there is also agreement on which two areas of public spending most need to be protected - the NHS and pensions – and which shouldn’t, most Conservative voters do not think benefits should rise in line with inflation.

The report concludes that despite his appeal to Blue Wall voters would be a mistake for Sunak to abandon voters in the Red Wall. These voters backed the Conservatives for the first time in 2019 on the promise a new democratic settlement that would help to revive left behind communities. Failure to deliver on that promise could see them turn away from mainstream politics entirely and towards populist/anti-democratic alternatives (as discussed in our recent report, The Disillusioned Defectors). That would be bad news not just for the Conservative’s chances of forming the next Government but for our politics as a whole.