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Over the last two years, More in Common has been tracking British public attitudes towards the Israel-Palestine conflict. Now, our new report, After Choosing Sides, drawing on new extensive polling and focus groups, explores how the conflict has changed how some Britons think of each other, and concludes that the fallout from the conflict is likely to have lasting effects on attitudes towards civil debate, free speech and our institutions for many years into the future.
In the two years since October 2023, the proportion of people who say they sympathise more with a particular side in the Israel-Palestine conflict has remained relatively unchanged. The number saying they sympathise more with Israel has fallen slightly from 16 to 14 per cent, and the proportion saying they sympathise more with Palestine has risen slightly from 18 to 26 per cent.
At the same time, certain groups have become more entrenched in their views - particularly young people and Progressive Activists. Progressive Activists - the segment who are highly politically engaged and more globally minded on social issues - are the only segment where a majority support one side. Progressive Activists are also much more likely to say that their support for the Palestinian side is an important part of their identity.
Despite some differences, most Britons share the same fundamental starting points regardless of which side of the conflict they may feel closer to. These are:
Britons tend to have negative views of the Israeli Government and extremely negative views of Hamas, and think that at different points both have acted as barriers to peace. Progressive Activists are notable for the fact that 30 per cent of them also have negative views of Israeli citizens themselves.
Britons are concerned about the rise of Antisemitism and anti-Muslim hate in the UK as a result of the conflict, but these views are becoming more polarised. Right-leaning segments of the population are much more likely to be concerned about antisemitism than islamophobia, whereas left-leaning segments are relatively more concerned about Islamophobia than antisemitism.
Antisemitism and anti-Muslim hate are often presented as opposing or mutually exclusive problems - with the suggestion that caring about one means ignoring or in some cases endorsing the other. But our research shows they tend to rise and fall together, driven by the same underlying dynamic: when people become more polarised, they're more likely to hold negative views of people in different groups. The same echo chambers and information bubbles that make people unable to have reasonable discussions about Gaza and then make people feel worse about ‘the other side’ also fuel prejudice against both Jewish and Muslim communities. When the majority of Britons who share concerns about civilian suffering get drowned out by extreme voices, and caring about different forms of prejudice is seen as mutually exclusive, that in turn facilitates conditions where all forms of prejudice can increase.
The conflict has shaped how some Britons see each other for the worse. More than a quarter of Britons (27 per cent) would think worse of someone for attending a pro-Palestine march, and 30 per cent would think worse of someone for attending a pro-Israel march. Among those with strong views on the conflict, this polarisation is even more stark: 43 per cent of those who sympathise with Palestine would consider ending a friendship with someone who posted on social media in support of Israel, and 46 per cent of those who sympathise with Israel would consider doing the same over a pro-Palestine post.
Those with strong views on the conflict are increasingly unable to discuss these issues in good-faith with each other. When asked why people hold opposing views, those with strong views on both sides attribute bad motives rather than genuine disagreement: people who sympathise more with Palestine say that others support Israel because "they are anti-Muslim/anti-Arab," while those who sympathise more with Israel are most likely say people back Palestine because they are antisemitic.
Those without strong views find it more uncomfortable to talk about the conflict. 83 per cent of those who take a side in the conflict say they feel comfortable talking about it with their family, whereas this is just 59 per cent for those who don’t take a side.
This means that those with the strongest views in favour of one side or another dominate conversations. For example, despite only making up 40 per cent of the country, people who take a side in the conflict account for 71 per cent of people who have posted about the conflict on social media. 74 per cent of the country think those with the most extreme views on the conflict crowd out the voices of people with more moderate views.
Loud discourse means people overestimate how engaged the public are in the conflict. While the majority do not sympathise with either side, on average Britons think that 29 per cent of the country puts themselves on the pro-Palestine side, and 18 per cent put themselves on the pro-Israel side. Among those who do take a view on the conflict, these numbers are even more pronounced: people who take a side in the conflict think that 69 per cent of the public also do, when in reality this number is 40 percent. People who sympathise with Palestine think there are twice as many people in Britain who share their views than there actually are (51 per cent versus 26 per cent); similarly, pro-Israel supporters think that they are in the larger side in the country, and think there are more than double the number of people on their sides as there actually are. That people overestimate how common their own viewpoints are is evidence that perhaps people are filtering into their own echo chambers on social media.
Language gaps in how people want to talk about the conflict make it harder to have constructive conversation. Just under four in ten Britons think Israel's actions in Gaza constitute genocide, but this rises to a majority of Progressive Activists.
Similarly, while 9 per cent of Britons have negative views of those who support the right of Jewish people to have a nation in Israel, 22 per cent think negatively of those who identify as "Zionists”. When the same words mean fundamentally different things to different people, or when terms that seem factual to one side are deeply offensive to the other, it becomes nearly impossible to have bridging discussions.
The public's patience for disruptive protest is wearing thin. People support the principle of the right to free speech, but draw a line at offensive language and particularly disruptive protest. 27 per cent of Britons would think worse of someone for going to a pro-Palestine march, and 30 per cent would think worse of someone for going to a pro-Israel march. The majority of the public think that some protests are so disruptive they should not be allowed.
Since the signing of the latest peace deal, the prospect of a more lasting peace in Gaza has become realistic in the eyes of Britons, who are now more optimistic that the war will end within the next ten years. However even if the war were to end tomorrow, its impact on Britain - on how people view each other, on religious cohesion, on attitudes to free speech and protest - will be long lasting, and could continue for many years to come.
There is much more in the full report, which you can download below.