News

New Statesman

22 June 2025

Grooming gangs, social cohesion and hard truths

By Luke Tryl

In the long term, attempts to avoid confronting issues are more toxic to than facing them head on.

The Independent

11 June 2025

How Labour’s spending review was shaped by Reform UK

I think Labour has a lot more work to do to combat the “Farage factor”. According to More In Common, the public now trusts Reform as much as Labour to provide support for vulnerable people, as well as on the economy. Reform has a narrow lead over the Tories on tax: 19 per cent trust Reform most to keep taxes low, compared with the 18 per cent who trust the Tories the most.

However, 46 per cent of people say Reform would be a risk to the economy, while 29 per cent disagree. Interestingly, comparing Farage’s recent policy announcements to the Truss mini-Budget erodes net support for his policies by 20 points. That is why Reeves deployed this ammunition, and why we will hear it thousands of times before the next election.

Financial Times

9 June 2025

Reform UK gains support in areas with high child poverty

A Financial Times analysis of election projections by pollster More in Common shows that the vast majority of constituencies where Reform is expected to perform well have higher than average child poverty rates.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, said Reform is appealing to people who are “disillusioned” with government and socially conservative, but left-leaning on economic issues.

“These voters keep trying to vote for change, they’re unhappy with the status quo,” he said, adding that Labour had so far failed to deliver on what voters saw as their core missions, including supporting working people, improving public services and reducing poverty.

The Times

7 June 2025

What to expect in Rachel Reeves’s spend, spend, spending review

According to a poll of more than 2,000 people by the think tank More in Common, voters were as likely to trust Reform as Labour on the economy (both at 22 per cent). In a head-to-head between Starmer and Farage, the public were split; 51 per cent chose the prime minister and 49 per cent chose Farage.

Britons tended to think Reform posed a threat to the economy, but many thought it was worth the risk. By a margin of 46 per cent to 29 per cent, voters thought that a Reform government would pose a risk to the economy — but 40 per cent said that Reform could not be any worse than the other parties. By a large margin of 49 per cent to 15 per cent, voters supported Reform’s policies on tax and welfare.

Politico

3 June 2025

Keir Starmer is banking on Nigel Farage being toxic. What if he’s wrong?

The center-left Labour leader is anything but popular — and his nemesis appears to be detoxifying in the eyes of the electorate.

“⁠It’s true Farage has high negatives, but so does Starmer — after a term in office and an incumbency drag, a one-on-one fight might not be to his benefit,” said Luke Tryl, of the More in Common think tank.

“The Democrats thought this about Trump in 2016, and a little in 2024, that he was the easier opponent — well, look how that worked out.”

The Daily Mail

1 June 2025

From Glastonbury festival goers to pub garden enthusiasts: How your summer plans indicate which political party you're likely to vote for

And 28 per cent of Wimbledon fans would vote for Reform, with 23 per cent backing the Conservatives and 21 per cent Labour, the poll by More in Common found.

Reform also wins with a landslide among staycationers and pub garden enthusiasts. Ed Hodgson, of More in Common, said: 'In Britain, voters have traditionally voted along class lines – and this polling shows how many of those boundaries are now blurring.

'The Wimbledon finding is particularly striking... often seen as a marker of middle-class Britain, Wimbledon's audience doesn't fit the caricature of Reform's base.'

He added: 'As disillusionment with mainstream politics spreads, it is possible many of these Conservative loyalists will consider voting for Reform...'