Ahead the 2025 NATO summit, our new research into public attitudes on NATO finds that while the British public still thinks NATO is important, younger people are much more ambivalent - and many Britons have doubts about whether the US would fulfil its Article 5 obligation to the UK.
The role of NATO
Fifty-six per cent believe that NATO is still an important military alliance.
A majority of Britons believe that NATO is important, while a fifth (19 per cent) believe that it is no longer an important alliance, and five per cent believe it was never important.
However, younger Britons are far less convinced about NATO’s role: just over a third (36 per cent) of those under the age of 25 believe that NATO is an important alliance, while a large proportion (40 per cent) say they don’t know.
Britons across politics believe in NATO’s importance, although Reform and Green voters are more divided.
Across every voter group, Britons are more likely to think that NATO is an important military alliance than not. However, voters from Reform and the Green Party are more likely to be sceptical of NATO.
Among Reform voters, 46 per cent believe that NATO is an important alliance, while 39 per cent disagree. Additionally, while Green voters are less supportive of NATO than average, only a minority share leadership front runner Zack Polanski’s views on the organisation: 53 per cent believe that NATO is important, while 35 per cent disagree.
Meanwhile, fewer than half of all Britons think NATO is likely to exist in 30 years' time, and only 15 per cent think it is highly likely to still exist.
Barely half of Britons think the US would fulfill its Article 5 obligations to defend the UK if it was attacked
Almost two thirds of Britons (63 per cent) believe it is likely that NATO would defend the UK if it was attacked, though barely half (55 per cent) believe the United States would do so.
Again, young Britons are less confident in NATO, with fewer saying it is likely that NATO would defend Britain if it were attacked.
Britons are divided by politics on whether the UK should come to the defence of the US, Taiwan and Israel in the event of these countries being attacked.
The public as a whole would support defending the United States (net +13 per cent), but this varies by 2024 vote - Conservative and Reform UK voters would strongly support defending the United States in the event of an attack (+32 and +34 per cent), while Liberal Democrats are net opposed (-6 per cent) to defending the US in the event it were attacked.
Though Britons of all groups are opposed to defending Israel, this also varies by 2024 vote - with Labour and Liberal Democrat voters much more strongly opposed to defending Israel (-27 per cent, -32 per cent) than Conservative or Reform UK voters (-11 per cent, -13 per cent).
Many Britons are unsure on whether or not the UK should defend Taiwan in the event it is attacked, but those with a view are more likely to say the UK shouldn’t get involved.
The UK's allies
Britons are most likely to see the other CANZUK nations as allies. Three quarters of the public see Canada and Australia as allies, while more than two thirds say the same of New Zealand (71 per cent) and France (66 per cent).
60 per cent of the public see the United States as an ally, an improvement of 17 per cent since early April, following the fallout of President Trump’s Oval Office meeting with President Zelenskyy, and before the UK-US trade deal.
A clear majority of Britons see Russia and Iran as enemies (65 per cent and 54 per cent respectively), though the public are more hesitant to call China an enemy.
36 per cent say China is an enemy, while 38 per cent say they are neither an ally nor an enemy. That being said, 2024 Conservative (48 per cent), Liberal Democrat (45 per cent), and Reform (53 per cent) voters are more likely to describe China as an enemy.
A clear majority of Britons see Russia and Iran as enemies (65 per cent and 54 per cent respectively), though the public are more hesitant to call China an enemy.
36 per cent say China is an enemy, while 38 per cent say they are neither an ally nor an enemy. That being said, 2024 Conservative (48 per cent), Liberal Democrat (45 per cent), and Reform (53 per cent) voters are more likely to describe China as an enemy.
Israel-Iran
Three quarters of Britons are concerned about an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
The polling comes as Britons express deep concerns about the conflict in Iran: three quarters (76 per cent) say they’re worried about an escalation of the conflict, while 72 per cent are concerned about the impact on energy prices in the UK.
Meanwhile, two thirds (67 per cent) are concerned that Britain might end up sending troops to Iran, and majorities are also concerned about Iran developing nuclear weapons (65 per cent), and the impact on both Iranian (62 per cent) and Israeli (57 per cent) civilians.
Most Britons think that both Israel and Iran share some blame for the conflict.
Asked where the blame lies for the conflict, few Britons think either party is entirely responsible, while most think both countries share some of the blame.
Only 11 per cent think Israel is entirely to blame, while only 8 per cent say the same of Iran. Meanwhile a larger proportion (34 per cent) think that both countries are to blame.
21 per cent of Britons think Iran is mainly or entirely responsible, while 25 per cent say the same of Israel.
Blame is split politically: Conservative and Reform voters are far more likely to think Iran is responsible, while Labour and Liberal Democrat voters lean toward blaming Israel.