More in Common's September MRP

Key findings

• The Conservatives are pushed into fourth place - with only 41 MPs.
• Reform UK are projected to a 96 seat majority, with 373 MPs.
• For the first time, an MRP has projected Labour on fewer than 100 seats - losing over 300 of the seats they won in 2024.

Party	Seat count	Change from 2024 result	Vote share
Reform UK	373	+368	31%
Labour	90	-321	21%
Conservative	41	-80	19%
Liberal Democrat	69	-3	15%
SNP	34	+25	2%
Other	14	+8	4%
Green	6	+2	8%
Plaid Cymru	4	-	1%

Reform on course for majority

More in Common’s MRP model is projecting a Reform majority government for the first time.

With 373 MPs, this result would hand Reform a majority of 96 - slightly larger than Boris Johnson’s 2019 majority of 80.

Reform is no longer limited to typically Tory seats - they are projected to flip 276 Labour seats as well as 4 Liberal Democrat seats and 4 SNP seats, with 84 taken from the Conservatives.

In the 2024 election, Reform’s relatively flat vote share across constituencies meant even with a comparable vote share to the Liberal Democrats they won few seats. Now this uniformity is projected to help them to pick up gains from both Labour and the Conservatives.

Worst result for Labour in post-war history

Labour is projected to hold onto 90 of its seats - predominantly in urban centres like London, and university towns.

This would be the smallest parliamentary Labour Party since 1931, with most of the Cabinet losing their seats.

276 seats are projected to flip to Reform, while the SNP takes 26 of Labour’s Scottish seats.

Labour are projected to take second place in 226 seats. In 106 of these they are pipped to victory by less than 10% of the vote.

Near-extinction of the Conservatives

The Conservatives are projected to have just 41 MPs - an unprecedented, near extinction event of Boris Johnson’s 365-strong parliamentary party.

This would make them only slightly larger than the Scottish National Party in Westminster.

In 134 of the seats won by the Conservatives in 2019, including parts of the Red Wall and Scotland,  the Tories are now in third place or lower.

Liberal Democrats move into third place

Ed Davey’s party is managing to hold their 2024 coalition together - winning 69 seats.

Reform are now their main challengers, coming in second place in 40 Liberal Democrat seats, whereas Conservatives come second in 25 Lib Dem seats and Labour in only one. 

The collapse of Labour and the Conservatives means this projected result would put the Liberal Democrats only 22 seats short of becoming the main opposition.

A multi-party system

Like the 2024 election, this result would be marginal - a striking 305 seats are projected to be won by  a margin of less than 10 points

Nearly 100 seats are three-horse races with three or more parties within 10 points of the winning party - some are even five horse races.

FAQs and Methodology

The MRP model was based on a sample of 19,520 people (representative of British adults) surveyed between 8 August and 15 September 2025.

What is an MRP?

‘Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification’ (MRP) uses data from a voting intention poll to model how people will vote based on their demographics, voting behaviour and information about their constituency. These results are then applied to the demographic and electoral makeup of each constituency to make a constituency-level estimate. The model is 'multilevel' because it uses both individual and constituency-level data.

How is this different from your normal voting intention poll?

The voting intention regularly published by More in Common is a national estimate based on a representative sample of at least 2,000 people. It indicates roughly how many people in Great Britain intend to vote for one party or another. This is simple to calculate and allows us to track changes through time.

But if you want to estimate a national seat count, this isn’t as useful. No political party performs equally well in every seat, because their supporters are not evenly spread across the country. For example, a 70-year-old man who didn’t go to university and lives in a small village has a higher likelihood of voting Conservative than a 25-year-old woman renting a flat in a major city.

The benefit of MRP is the ability to use information about the different people who live in every constituency across the country to estimate how many people will vote for each party.

How does the model account for those who don't know how they will vote?

When we ask people their voting intention, some people say they don’t know. We push them to say who they would vote for if they were forced to choose, and we use this response as their expected vote. Some people, when asked to imagine that they were forced to choose, still don’t know who they would vote for. Using our MRP model, we’re able to make a better guess at how these “double don’t knows” might end up voting. When training the model to predict people’s voting intention based on their demographics, voting behaviour and information about their constituency, we excluded the responses of people who didn’t know who they would vote for (after the squeeze) from the training data. When we apply the model to all the voters in the constituency, it effectively means we estimate the votes of people who don’t know, according to how people like them (in terms of demographics and past voting behaviour) but who do know, intend to vote. So if someone lives in a rural area, is over 75 and voted Conservative in 2024, the model uses the fact that most over 75s in rural areas who voted Conservative in 2024 and do know who they’ll vote for say they will vote Conservative, to guess that if they do vote it will likely be for the Conservatives.

Is this a snapshot or a projection?

With four and a half years before the next General Election must be called this model is unlikely to represent anything close to the ultimate result and should not be seen as a projection of the election.

As well as not knowing what might happen between now and 2029, we also don’t know which parties will stand in different seats, what tactical voting might look like exactly and who will ultimately turn out to vote. What’s more, the degree of electoral fragmentation makes individual seat dynamics even more difficult to project than previously.

Instead this model provides a baseline for how the electorate has fragmented since the last General Election and what the implications of that might be for the make up of a future Parliament. We will continue to update it throughout the next Parliament and introduce new data as it becomes available.

Why does the model show X party winning in Y constituency?

MRP models are a good way to estimate how the parties might perform across different constituencies based on their demographic makeup. However, they don’t account for local factors that impact a small number of constituencies, such as a popular incumbent, well known or controversial council policy. These factors make it difficult to predict exact vote shares even in the best of times, but even more so when three parties are polling at over 20%, making three-way races more common. Therefore it would be a mistake to draw too much from the estimated vote share in an individual constituency.