Welsh Voters and the General Election

  • Insight
  • 30 June 2024

More in Common's final Wales-only poll of the General Election campaign finds Labour set to dominate again in Wales, despite Gething’s approval ratings slumping to new lows 

The final Wales-only poll by More in Common of the general election campaign shows Labour ending the campaign on a 42 per cent vote share, and the Conservatives falling from 36 per cent of the vote in 2019 to just 22 per cent of the vote ahead of next Thursday’s election.  

The full results of the poll were:

  • Labour - 42% (+1)
  • Conservatives - 22% (-14)
  • Plaid Cymru - 9% (-1)
  • Reform UK - 14% (NEW)
  • Liberal Democrat - 4% (-2)
  • The Green Party - 5% (+4)

(+/- figures are differences from 2019 vote share results).

Vaughan Gething’s popularity slumps further

When compared with More in Common’s poll from the start of the campaign, First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Vaughan Gething has fallen further in his approval ratings from minus 17 points approval rating at the end of May to minus 30 points as the General Election campaign enters its final week. Only Sunak and the Conservatives have worse approval ratings in Wales. 

The wrong decision to appoint Gething First Minster

People in Wales are now twice as likely to think that the decision to appoint Gething as First Minister was the wrong one (44%) than the right one (18%) - though many also say they don’t know (38%). The proportion of the public who consider Gething’s appointment to be the wrong one has increased over the course of the General Election campaign from 30% at the end of May to 44% at the end of June. Similarly, the proportion of those who viewed Gething’s appointment as the right decision has fallen from 24% at the end of May to 18% at the end of June. 

While the number of people in Wales who think that Vaughan Gething is an improvement on Mark Drakeford has remained stable at 15%, the proportion of Welsh people who think Gething is a downgrade on Drakeford has risen from 15% at the end of May to 23% at the end of June.

Broader state of the parties and political leaders in Wales 

Labour are ahead of both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru on the top issues that will decide this election - the cost of living and the NHS. Plaid is ahead on one issue - standing up for Wales in Westminster, and none of the three main parties are ahead on climate change or immigration whether neither beats all three parties.

The polling also found that people in Wales are more likely to blame and hold the Cardiff government responsible for issues in transport, education, crime and the NHS. It’s only on issues relating to the economy where people in Wales place more responsibility at Westminster than at Cardiff. 

20mph policy remains unpopular 

The vast majority (72 per cent) of people in Wales view the introduction of the 20 mph limit policy earlier this year as a bad idea. The biggest issues people in Wales see with the 20mph limit are that there are other priorities the government should be focusing on, the lack of proper consultation, and the costs of introducing the policy. 

Labour will once again become a close to monolithic political force across Wales as the Welsh Conservatives face electoral wipeout in Wales on polling day this Thursday. Our polling last month showed it was clear that Labour’s strength in Wales was in spite of not because of Gething’s appeal. Over the last four weeks that has become even clearer as Gething’s approval ratings have collapsed and now twice as many think his appointment as FM was the wrong rather than right decision. His public approval numbers aren’t the only numbers that matter for Gething as he faces a real challenge getting a budget through the Senedd and Welsh Labour will have to reflect on whether keeping the beleaguered first minister in place is worth the political cost.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director, More in Common UK

More in Common polled a nationally representative sample of 848 Welsh adults between the 24th and 28th of June 2024.