Scottish Voters and General Election - Final Poll

  • Insight
  • 30 June 2024

More in Common's final poll of Scottish voters of this General Election campaign shows Labour ahead by five points

More in Common’s final Scotland-only voting intention poll of the general election campaign shows that Labour remains ahead with a 5 point lead over the SNP and looks set to gain a greater than 15 point swing to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party from the SNP since 2019. 

If such a result is replicated next Thursday, it is likely to see Labour gaining up to 35 seats north of the border,  once again upending the political landscape and ending the SNP’s decade of dominance. 

The full results of the poll were (with changes from the 2019 General Election)

  • Labour - 35% (+16) 
  • SNP - 30% (-15)
  • Conservative - 16% (-9)
  • Liberal Democrat - 9% (-1)
  • Reform UK - 7% (NEW)
  • The Green Party - 2% (+1) 

No major political leader or political party has positive approval ratings in Scotland - the Labour Party and Keir Starmer have the least negative approvals at -2 and -6 respectively. 

Compared to More in Common’s first Scotland poll in the first week of the campaign, some changes in approval ratings have been seen. John Swinney has seen a 13 point drop from -2 (previously the best approval rating of those political leaders and parties tested) to -15 in this week’s poll. Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party’s approval ratings have also fallen further and now stands at -51 and -55 respectively among Scots. 

As with elsewhere across the country, the cost of living and the NHS are the two dominant issues for this election. Scottish Independence is placed as the fourth top issue in Scotland - down three points from its position of third in our poll of people in Scotland in May and a drop from 19% seeing it as a top issue to 16% as the campaign enters the final few days. 

The Labour Party is more trusted on salient issues for voters such as housing, the NHS and the cost of living - though “neither” beats both of the main parties in Scotland on a range of issues from climate change to levels of immigration. 

People in Scotland are more likely to blame Westminster for issues with the economy in Scotland, more likely to blame Holyrood for challenges with policing, education and transport, and are evenly split over whether Westminster or Holyrood is to blame for issues in the NHS. 

Our final poll of the campaign in Scotland confirms that Scotland’s political landscape is about to be upended again and that Labour are on course to make significant gains across Scotland at the expense of the SNP turning very many seats from yellow to red next Thursday evening. Our polling also finds that John Swinney’s honeymoon period as the new First Minister was a brief one - with a 13 point drop in approval ratings over the course of the campaign. The question then for the SNP is whether they can use the final days of the campaign to make the argument that with Labour already set to secure such a historic majority Scottish voters should vote SNP to keep a distinctive Scottish voice in Westminster

Luke Tryl, Executive Director, More in Common UK

More in Common polled a nationally representative sample of 1008 Scottish voters between the 24th and 28th of June 2024.