Voting intention - September 2023

  • Research
  • 22 September 2023

More in Common's polling finds Labour still leading by an unchanged 15 points over the Conservatives. Cost of living remains the overwhelming top concern among the public, with a slight uptick since last month. If made to choose another party, most Reform UK voters would vote Conservative

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"For the first time this parliament public opinion seems to have become profoundly ‘sticky’. For the third month in the row our voting intention poll shows a 15-point Labour lead, while cost of living, the NHS, climate change and small boats remain the big issues of public concern. It’s clearly going to take some major developments at next month’s party conferences to shift these numbers – but even that relies on the fact the public will still be listening"

Luke Tryl, UK Director

"Based on their performance in local and by-elections Reform UK it seems the polls could be over-stating their performance. If that is the case our new polling suggests this could give the Conservatives a small bounce - with a quarter of their voters saying they’d back the Tories if they couldn’t vote Reform UK, and only 3% saying Labour. With Labour’s lead in the double digits that might not make too much of a difference, but should the election tighten, those Reform voters go could well be the difference between a hung parliament and a Labour majority"

Luke Tryl, UK Director